Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
